The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its latest report on 9th August, with very bad news for bushfires in Australia.
In a nutshell, the analysis finds that the conditions conducive to disastrous fires will get worse, even in the best case scenario.
Australia has already heated more than the rest of the world due to local factors, and winter rainfall has diminished in the south. Droughts and days of extreme heat will multiply.
ANU’s Professor Mark Howden, a lead author on the report, says that The conditions that generate fire weather are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity.1
Professor Howden also said it was increasingly clear climate change has played a significant role in extreme heat events in many regions, including the 2019-2020 Black Summer fires here and current events in Europe and North America.2
On Australia, the IPCC says:
Frequency of extreme fire weather days has increased, and the fire season has become longer since 1950 at many locations (medium confidence). The intensity, frequency and duration of fire weather events are projected to increase throughout Australia (high confidence)…3
IBG comment
- The Climate Council, Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, numerous scientists and IBG have been warning of the bushfire threat from human-induced climate change for years.
- Bigger, hotter and more frequent fires could devastate human and natural communities.
- As well as moving strenuously to reduce carbon emissions, Australia must adapt to this threat by escalating its capacity to manage the impacts of bushfires.
- IBG put this argument in our submissions to the NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry and the Royal Commission Into National Natural Disaster Arrangements (see Our reports).
- IBG has been pushing for smaller fires and prepared communities.
- We need faster initial attack, better strategies, more analysis and learning, targeted research and investment in community resilience.
- Some improvements are happening, but much more needs to be done.
- 1 “UN’s ‘code red’ climate warning a burning issue for Australia’s fire risk”, Mike Foley, Sydney Morning Herald, 15 Aug 2021
- 2 Ditto
- 3 IPCC Regional Factsheet – Australia
Independent Bushfire Group 