As an outcome of the NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry, each year the NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) releases a Fire Season Outlook for the coming bushfire season. The Outlook for 2024-25 was recently tabled in NSW Parliament. It contains a lot of helpful information and deserves wide exposure, especially within at-risk communities.
The inquiry’s 2nd recommendation said that the public statement from the Government: “…should form the basis for clear public communication about these risks on a regional basis and the actions that Government proposes in preparation.”
This year’s report includes a forecast of weather and fuel conditions for the upcoming season and a summary of preparation that has been undertaken, including hazard reduction works. The Predicted Fire Season Outlook (page 5) maps all of NSW at ‘normal’ fire potential, while pointing out that forest areas burnt in 2019-2020 may carry fire again. This is partly because of the regrowth that has occurred during the past few wet years.
The report also identifies that grassland areas of NSW could dry out enough to pose an above normal risk.
The resource capabilities of the four firefighting agencies are listed on page 13, showing a total of 1,510 remote area firefighters across RFS and National Parks and Wildlife Service, 510 Community Fire Units supported by Fire and Rescue NSW, and over 5,500 firefighting appliances (tankers, pumpers, etc) across all four agencies.
In broad terms, the key risks for the 2024-25 bush fire season include:
– Grassland areas west of the Great Dividing Range may pose an above normal risk, particularly later in the fire season.
– Once dry, forest areas could carry fast and intense fires under elevated fire danger conditions. This includes areas that were burnt during the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, many of which have now recovered.
Fire Season Outlook 2024-2025 (NSW Rural Fire Service, n.d.)
Independent Bushfire Group 